Tag: Presidential Polls

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YOU CAN’T BET ON BIDEN OR TRUMP

Are you a gambling man—or woman?  Most of us don’t take a whole lot of chances with our money. In fact, only 15% of people in the world gamble on a regular basis.  On the other hand, 85% of us have gambled on something or other in the past year.  Bought a lottery ticket, or played some slot machines in a casino.  In election years, there’s a lot of bets being placed on who’s going to win. But here in the United States, you can’t bet on Biden or Trump.

Political betting is illegal in this country.  That means you’re breaking the law if you even place a bet with your cousin or next door neighbor..  Obviously, there’s lots of people breaking the law.  And I’m not sure what the penalty might be if someone reported you to the police for betting on the election.

You can't bet on Biden or Trump. Political gambling is illegal in the USA.
You can’t bet on Biden or Trump. Political Betting is illegal in the USA.

People from other countries can go online and place all the bets they want to, but we Yanks aren’t supposed to bet on our own elections. Why is that? The theory is that if you bet on a massive longshot, you would be less likely to vote—ensuring that your candidate will lose.  Nevertheless, most seasoned politicians follow the sports betting 2020 election odds very closely. And right now, the odds are favoring Biden.

According to Reuter’s World News,

“Bettors on British exchange markets give Democratic challenger Joe Biden a 66% chance of winning the Nov. 3 election, down from 68% before the the debate. Trump’s chances improved to 34% from 32%.

….The odds have narrowed since mid-October, but betting trends on gambling websites still predict a win for Biden. The former vice president has a substantial lead in national opinion polls, although the contest is closer in battleground states likely to decide the race.

…The majority of big-money political betting occurs outside America as betting on politics is illegal in the United States.”

Although we can’t legally  place a bet, we can to go online and see the betting odds for the 2020 election.

But  seasoned gamblers often bet against the odds .  It turns out that as of October 20th,  62% of world gamblers were betting on Trump to win, and only 35% were betting on Biden.  Why bet against public opinion?

According to the website  Odds Shark.  “ One of the most popular sports betting systems is the “contrarian method” of going against whatever side the public is backing,” because “the public can be easily brainwashed by the media, and tends to be wrong more often than not.”

Are the contrarians right or wrong?  It remains to be seen.

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WHY WOULD YOU VOTE STRAIGHT TICKET?

Our local newspaper just featured a story about our county’s bellwether status.  For those who don’t know: that means we’ve predicted who will be elected president since the year 1888—with two exceptions.  Now, they say that’s going to change if we go for Trump.  That doesn’t really bother me so much as the rest of the article. The author says that 41% of both republicans and democrats vote straight tickets. This leaves only a small amount of unpredictable votes. It boggles the mind.  Why would you vote  straight ticket in a small city?

Voting is different in a big city metropolis.  I was first eligible to vote when I moved to Chicago after college.  I’m sure I voted straight ticket because I didn’t know any of the people on the ballot.  I was just voting for the party of my parents.  Honestly, I didn’t give it a whole lot of thought. Year later, I moved to Miami and voted the same way. I had never met any of the candidates and their names meant nothing to me  Again, the safe bet was to vote straight ticket.

Why would you vote straight ticket? In this bellwether city, many are still undecided.
Why Would You Vote Straight Ticket? This bellwether county could lose its status this year.

Now, I’ve lived in this county where I vote for the past 50 years.  I have known, met, or , interacted with  almost  every local candidate.  I can’t imagine voting against a person I admire or respect based on their political affiliations.  Conversely, why would I vote for someone I don’t like, just because they belong to the party of my choice?

We  voted  early this year, on the second day the polls opened.  It was a little more crowded than usual , but no lines at all.  We got right in. When the poll worker came to instruct  me , she opened to the first page, stopped, and looked at me.  It was obvious she expected someone my age to vote straight ticket, which would make the whole process a whole lot easier.  When I told her I wanted to split my ticket, she seemed  nonplussed.  But she did her job, and told me to turn the page.  Then she left me to my private decisions.

There’s nothing difficult about splitting your ticket.  In fact, it’s a lot more interesting. In the rare cases where you don’t know all the  candidates for a given office,  you can always fall back on the party of your choice.  And when I see my favored candidate  walking down the street, it gives  me a warm feeling.  Even if I don’t identify as a member of their party,  I still believe he/she will do the best job.   And I’m glad I didn’t vote straight ticket.