Tag: Odds Shark

Posted on

YOU CAN’T BET ON BIDEN OR TRUMP

Are you a gambling man—or woman?  Most of us don’t take a whole lot of chances with our money. In fact, only 15% of people in the world gamble on a regular basis.  On the other hand, 85% of us have gambled on something or other in the past year.  Bought a lottery ticket, or played some slot machines in a casino.  In election years, there’s a lot of bets being placed on who’s going to win. But here in the United States, you can’t bet on Biden or Trump.

Political betting is illegal in this country.  That means you’re breaking the law if you even place a bet with your cousin or next door neighbor..  Obviously, there’s lots of people breaking the law.  And I’m not sure what the penalty might be if someone reported you to the police for betting on the election.

You can't bet on Biden or Trump. Political gambling is illegal in the USA.
You can’t bet on Biden or Trump. Political Betting is illegal in the USA.

People from other countries can go online and place all the bets they want to, but we Yanks aren’t supposed to bet on our own elections. Why is that? The theory is that if you bet on a massive longshot, you would be less likely to vote—ensuring that your candidate will lose.  Nevertheless, most seasoned politicians follow the sports betting 2020 election odds very closely. And right now, the odds are favoring Biden.

According to Reuter’s World News,

“Bettors on British exchange markets give Democratic challenger Joe Biden a 66% chance of winning the Nov. 3 election, down from 68% before the the debate. Trump’s chances improved to 34% from 32%.

….The odds have narrowed since mid-October, but betting trends on gambling websites still predict a win for Biden. The former vice president has a substantial lead in national opinion polls, although the contest is closer in battleground states likely to decide the race.

…The majority of big-money political betting occurs outside America as betting on politics is illegal in the United States.”

Although we can’t legally  place a bet, we can to go online and see the betting odds for the 2020 election.

But  seasoned gamblers often bet against the odds .  It turns out that as of October 20th,  62% of world gamblers were betting on Trump to win, and only 35% were betting on Biden.  Why bet against public opinion?

According to the website  Odds Shark.  “ One of the most popular sports betting systems is the “contrarian method” of going against whatever side the public is backing,” because “the public can be easily brainwashed by the media, and tends to be wrong more often than not.”

Are the contrarians right or wrong?  It remains to be seen.

Posted on

WHY POLL TAKING IS OBSOLETE

The only people who believe in the benefit of taking polls are the organizations that take them. It has  been proven time and again, especially in the last presidential election, that polls aren’t reliable.  I’m sure some polls are accurate if they show a huge majority in favor of a certain  political candidate. But in a close election?  Not so much.  There are reasons why poll taking is obsolete:

 

Polls aren't nearly as accurate as they were 20 years ago.
90% of people don’t answer their phones.

90% of people don’t answer their phones.   Remember when it was exciting to hear the telephone ring?  Unless it happened to be a wrong number, it was always from someone you knew.  Now, no one in their right mind automatically picks up their  phone when it rings. Most of us receive six or eight spam calls a day on both our landline and our cellphones.  To answer is a big mistake.  So, if someone does decide to speak with a stranger, there’s something a little bit unusual about that person.  Maybe they’re incredibly lonely. Or just not playing with a full deck.  Whatever the reason, I wouldn’t trust the validity of their answers to a poll.

Only about 35 to 40 percent  of registered voters in the United States actually vote.  And so, if you’re polling that group, you have approximately a one out of three chance that the person you’re talking to is actually  going to vote at all.

Why don’t people in the USA turn out for the vote?  It’s hard to say.  Maybe it’s because too many people believe the polls.  Voting is easier in some states than it is in others.  In states like Indiana, where we have early voting, it’s not nearly as difficult as in states that  only allow same day voting. And so, if the polls say  your favorite candidate is going to win, you might think there’s no point in going to the trouble of voting.

Often, I’m asked to participate in online polls.  That’s the last thing I  would ever do.   Why not advertise your political leanings over the internet?  It could be downright dangerous.  At the very least, you will be bombarded with requests for money to support your candidate of choice.  Don’t you get enough e mails already?

If you really want to know who is going to win the election, your best source is probably with the bookmakers.