BUSINESSES ARE SLIP SLIDING AWAY

Economists can’t agree on whether or not we’re in a recession. Some are predicting doomsday, while stock brokers are advising investors to buy now.  Financial analysis is far too sophisticated for me to understand.  What I do know is that in this small midwestern college town, businesses are slip sliding away.

Businesses are slip sliding away because of high costs of goods and labor shortages
BUSINESSES ARE SLIP SLIDING AWAY because of high costs of labor and materials, plus lack of demand.

Let’s start with the past month. We called and ordered new window blinds to shut out the sunlight glaring in my husband’s failing eyesight.  We chose to buy from a  business that had been around for a quarter of a century.  But when it came time to deliver the blinds, we were informed they’re going out of business at the end of the year.  Unfortunately, the remote control didn’t work on the motorized roller  blinds.  Now, we are waiting for a working remote.  And have just been informed it won’t be in until sometime in January  They wanted us to pay the bill now, but we’re waiting until we get what we ordered.

.A few weeks ago, we bought all new tires for our aging SUV.  Several days later, we found the tire pressure down on the left front  tire.  Asked the dealer what was wrong, and they shrugged and simply put more air in the tire.  It went down a week later.  They wanted us to stay and look for a nail in the tire, but we were low on time, so just got a refill on the air.  The next week, the pressure went down again. This time, they grudgingly agreed to an inspection and found a leaky valve, which they had overlooked when installing the new tires.  I suspect this dealership is understaffed and seeing a drop in new business. It won’t surprise me if they either change hands or simply slip slide  away in the coming year.

. Lost my eye glasses, then accidentally found them after we stepped on them under the table.  Called the hospital optical shop which has been in here over 35 years.  Said they’re going out of business, but offered to fix my glasses.  Which they did, free of charge.  So sorry the people there will lose their jobs next year.

Took my prescription to one of those bargain  optical companies in a strip mall for a pair of back up bifocals. There was one person waiting on folks.  While he checked my face to fit my glasses, he stopped to wait on other customers who were making new appointments.  Then, he left  again to help someone at the desk fill out some paperwork. Finally, finished the measurements, and  said the glasses would be ready the next day. But they weren’t, which I found out after driving across town to pick them up.  Although I’ve already paid for them, they can’t tell me when they will be ready because the person in the lab is sick, and their equipment for grinding out glasses is broken down.

These experiences have all taken place within a months’ time.  I can’t remember anything like this in my lifetime.  I have to believe that our economy isn’t as healthy as the politicians would like us to believe. How many more businesses will slip slide away next year?

WHERE WILL ALL THE FLOWERS GO?

There’s a special place in my heart for men who buy flowers.  Especially if they’re going through the checkout lane at the supermarket.  Maybe they can’t afford an expensive arrangement from a florist for their loved one.  But they’re still bringing her flowers.  However, you don’t see that so much anymore.  Walked in the supermarket and found buckets of fresh flowers on sale for $1 a bunch.  What is happening?  Obviously, they didn’t sell nearly as many as they had expected last week.  When money is tight and inflation is surging,  discretionary spending takes a hit.  And if you can barely afford hot dogs, you’re certainly not going to buy a bunch of roses for your wife or girlfriend.   Where will all the flowers go now?

Where will all the flowers go when people can't afford to buy them?
WHERE WILL ALL THE FLOWERS GO? Discretionary spending is down, and folks aren’t buying so many fresh flowers now.

Florists must be feeling the pinch.  Lately, I’ve had friends complaining of expensive floral arrangements that didn’t last more than a couple of days.  Which means florists are using up old flowers that they ordered, based on last years sales data.  Ditto for the supermarkets.  It’s a bonanza , though, for anyone who has a few extra dollars to spend.  Especially since this summer drought ruined most of the lilies  and other garden flowers I’ve always gathered in years past.

Just read in the paper that Walmart sales have taken a hit. Discretionary spending is way down.  Not only are they selling fewer fresh flowers, but probably lots of other merchandise. If  you’ve stopped traveling  and eating out so much,  you really don’t need new clothes.  My closet is full of outfits I haven’t even worn this summer.  Mostly, I’m saving on laundry by wearing the same clothes over again the next day. .  Who cares how you look at the grocery store when you’re wearing a mask because of Covid,  and no one even recognizes you?

It’s a sign of the times.  When we see more people buying fresh flowers at the supermarket, we will know that we’re coming out of this recession and inflation has stopped rising.   Meanwhile, where will all the flowers go?

CREEPY GHOST MALLS A SCARY SIGN

When was the last time you visited a shopping mall?  For me, it had been almost  two years, since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.  I knew things had been doing downhill before that, when Macy’s closed and Sears pulled out.  Still it was a bustling place with rows of boutiques and specialty shops to meet every need. Retail therapy was alive and well.  Now fully vaccinated, I drove across town to look for a new fall sweater.    Drove around to Penny’s and found they’d blocked the back entrance.  The front entrance was lit up as always, and my spirits lifted as I walked in the door. Headed straight toward the inner  mall.  Then, the shockwaves hit.  Most of the stores along the hallways  were dark and empty. Gone forever!  Only a few holdouts remained; surprisingly, a  shoe store and a nail salon.  A wave of apprehension washed over me.  Creepy glost malls are a scary sign.

Creepy Ghost Malls Are a Scary Sign
Creepy Ghost Malls Are A Scary Sign. Will the economy really bounce back from all that loss?

I needed something to bolster my spirits.  Coffee! Headed for the food court.  None of the three remaining food bars served coffee.  Only bottled beverages. The seating area was deserted..  That made everything seem worse. But of course, it made sense.  How many people sit down to eat in a dying mall?

Of the three boutiques  left that sold women’s clothing, none had a black cardigan. The merchandise  was all picked over, and there were sale racks everywhere. I saw more clerks than customers.   Empty handed, I returned to the car.  Now I was hungry, but most of the nearby restaurants were shut down.  Finally drove to a Chick Filet, where they no longer sell chicken salad sandwiches.  Only fried stuff.   Most of the seating area closed,  Lots of people ordering carryout. The cashier checked in the back and found me  some coffee, so I sat down and took off my mask to drink it,  along with some little chicken nuggets.

Why is the stock market at an all time high, and home sales  booming?  The feds tell us everything is coming up roses.  But how?  Millions of dollars in merchandise, jobs, and potential income have been lost forever in the  mall and surrounding areas.  Some of that brick and mortar money went to e-commerce, but not all. There has to be a lot of empty pockets.  Are we headed for a recession?  I don’t know, but creepy ghost malls are a scary sign.

LOADING UP ON GASOLINE

When I went to fill my  gas tank on Tuesday,  it was hard to find an empty space. Everyone was loading up on gasoline. Finally, I pulled up behind a couple  with a  big old SUV.  They looked to be in their sixties.  On the ground next to their vehicle,  I saw several large red and yellow containers.  Lucky I wasn’t waiting for them to leave, because they were purchasing  what looked like about 30 gallons of gas—some diesel, some regular.   I had never seen anyone buying that much gasoline before, and it got me thinking about the effect of escalating gas prices. 

Loading up on gasoline. It's a sign of the times, and will lead to inflation.
Everyone was loading up on gasoline this week.  Higher gas prices will lead to inflation.

On Monday, my husband filled up on gas in his SUV. The price was $1.41 per gallon.   On Tuesday, I did the same in my old sedan, but now, the gas cost $1.61. .  By Wednesday, it had shot up to $1.75.  That’s a pretty steep increase.  The couple ahead of me at the gas station have lived through high priced gas.  Maybe they use a tractor or mower for a small business like lawn service. . They know that their income will go down when gas prices increase.  No wonder they’re loading up on gasoline.

Obviously, at my age, I’ve lived through many periods of high priced gas.  When I was a hospital food service manager, the purchasing agents dreaded high gasoline prices, because they knew that the price of plastic reusables was  going to skyrocket.  That’s because plastics are derived from byproducts of petroleum refining and natural gas processing. Therefore, when oil prices escalate the cost of single use plastic products like syringes and gloves increase.  And so, the cost of health care goes up .   But that’s just the beginning.  The cost of transporting food and other necessities by truck or train increases.  And suddenly, you have inflation.

Economists think a little bit of inflation is good for the economy because people can more easily  pay off old debts. But if inflation gets out of hand, consumers  start pulling in their belts and spend less on “wants” like vacations and new cars. . Less  consumer demand leads to higher unemployment.

Escalating gas prices are scary. .  No wonder that ordinary people were loading up on gas  last Tuesday.

 

IS STOCKPILING SELFISH OR SMART?

Hoarding is definitely a bad word nowadays.  It conjures up images of deranged people living amongst piles of things they’ve accumulated for years, unable to part with a even single rubber band.  But there’s another type of hoarder who is now in the spotlight.  It’s the person who has a closet full of toilet paper, or a trunk full of bottled picante sauce.  Yes, I’ve witnessed this type of hoarding during this pandemic.  But there’s a euphemism for the term, “hoarding,”  and its called stockpiling.  You might even think of it as saving, or stocking up for the uncertainty ahead.  Is stockpiling selfish or smart?

Stockpiling is generally frowned upon by the media.  We’re told that it’s a selfish act, depriving others of access to much needed goods.  But to my mind, it’s kind of a natural act of self preservation.  Everyone has their own wants and needs.  For my husband, it’s canned soup.  Being a diabetic, he is careful to avoid high carbohydrate foods.  Most soup is nutritious without being high in calories.  Beside that, it warms the tummy on cold wintry days.  It’s also one of the first things that started disappearing from the grocery store shelves in March..

And so, starting last spring, we would buy a few extra cans of his favorite soups whenever we shopped.  No, we didn’t walk out with a cartful of soup, but we did buy more than we could use in a week.  Consequently, we have two pantry shelves full of canned soup.  It’s at least a  month’s supply. I don’t see this as a stupid expense or a selfish act.  The money isn’t wasted.  Canned foods are good for years. And we really didn’t deprive anyone else of a can of soup in the long run. And at our age, there could be weeks when the weather is so bad we can’t leave the house.  Or one of us could get sick.

Is stockpiling selfish or smart. Stockpiling canned goods is a good idea when facing uncertainty
Is stockpiling selfish or smart? Everyone stockpiled canned goods in the olden days.

When I was a child, everyone stockpiled food .  Women canned.  We had a basement full of canned peaches, pears, tomatoes and green beans.  My husband lived on a farm, and they even canned the meat which they had raised.  Was that selfish or stupid?  No, it was called planning for the long winter months ahead.

This is a time of uncertainty.  A change in government, a new president of the United States.  A Covid-19 epidemic predicted to spiral out of control. Many economists are predicting a worldwide stagflation.  So Is stockpiling stupid, selfish,  or smart?  I’ll vote for smart.

BLESSING BOX FULL OF BEANS

Blessing boxes are springing up all over the country, and are certainly a blessing for the homeless and other impoverished Americans.  When you see men and women trying on clothing in the street next to a box, you know that there are many people who lack the basics.  We have several boxes in our city, but I just saw my first one up close, in the local mall.  However, its contents were disappointing, because that Blessing Box was full of beans.

The last time I walked in the mall was late March, before the pandemic began to spiral out of control. But since then,  they’ve lost a major retailer. The hallways are practically deserted, especially at the far end, next to the depressingly empty store.   Therefore, it seems like a relatively safe place to walk on the cold windy days ahead.   All the walkers you see are wearing masks, and they keep their distance.  Many are elderly.  Anyway, sometime over the summer or fall, they’ve added a Blessing Box.

The problem could be that few people are aware that the mall has a box.  But for those who do, they seem to think that black beans, especially, would be a good filler.  Now, I’m all for black beans.  They’re a great source of protein.  They’re especially appealing to vegans and Hispanics.  But if 80% of the offerings are either red beans or black beans,   it seems rather bleak. I’m envisioning some hungry little kids staring at a bowl of black beans.   Most ordinary Hoosier’s aren’t too fond of them.

Blessing box full of beans doesn't offer much. Try adding some canned meat.
Try to add some variety. Don’t just leave a blessing box full of beans.

There are many items that are good for food banks. Today, I ‘m going to stock up on some canned meat, tuna,  and peanut butter. Maybe some evaporated milk.   I’ll bring in a small bag, and add to the collections a few cans at a time.  Maybe that will inspire others to do the same.   If an un needy person takes the good stuff, that’s their moral issue,  not mine.

Blessing boxes were started a few years ago, in the low country.  While they’re a great idea, it’s sad to think there are so many people who rely on them for food and clothing.  But let’s  leave some good stuff in the boxes, not assume that needy people.  have no taste for anything but beans.

 

MAXING OUT AT THE DOLLAR STORE

Dollar Stores are everywhere—out in the country, and all over town. During this pandemic  they’ve become a good place to shop for basics while getting in and out quickly.  Some are classier than others, although none of them really fit that description.  I’m most apt to stop at the one near the public library on my way home. Compared to other Dollar Stores,  It’s pretty much down to the nitty gritty.   Because of  shoplifting,  many products are either locked up or in short supply.  They have a steady stream of customers in this low income neighborhood.  Yesterday, I noticed more people maxing out at the Dollar Store.

It didn’t seem very crowded at first.  But after I’d picked up my vitamins, I noticed the checkout line was backed up, and moving slower than usual.  The bottle neck was a woman  who couldn’t seem to get her credit card to work.  She made several attempts to key in various numbers, with no luck. The clerk was kindly, trying to help.  I contemplated offering to pay her bill, until I noticed her cart was filled with soda pop and salty snacks.  The dietitian in me just couldn’t deal with that.  If you’re almost broke, shouldn’t you buy something healthy?  Not for me to judge. She finally found a card that worked, so that ended my moral dilemma.

It’s not unusual to see someone on the edge at that Dollar Store.  But it didn’t used to happen very often.  However, the next person in line had a similar problem.  Since her credit card seemed to be maxed out, her companion pulled some coins and  a few wrinkled bills  from his pocket, and they made it through.  I looked at the customers lined up behind me.  They seemed tired and worried.  One woman took some items from her cart and put them back on the shelf. The parking lot was full of dented cars and rusty trucks.

Maxing Out at the Dollar Store is a sign of the times.
More folks are maxing out at the Dollar Store, which is a bad sign for the economy.

As I drove out of the parking lot, I felt something  coming on;  restless as a hurricane.  Is this  a portent of things to come?   I would guess that many of the customers in that store are unskilled folks who work in restaurants or other places where  more educated  people don’t want to work..  Because of the covid’19 pandemic,  their  low paying jobs have dried up.  They went through their unemployment pay and stimulus money in July.  What will happen next?  Are we headed for a deeper recession?

When people are maxing out at the dollar store, you have to worry.